What is the economic future of China? Will it become a high-income economy and so, inevitably, the largest in the world for an extended period, or will it be stuck in the “middle income” trap, with growth comparable to that of the US? This is a vital question for the future of the world economy. It is also no less vital for the future of global politics. The implications can be seen in quite a simple way. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China’s gross domestic product (GDP) per head (measured at purchasing power) was 28 per cent of...